As of June 25th

<p><strong>><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/">Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

I've discovered this wikipedia site which compiles state by state polling so I can do my own analysis of tracking polls to predict what the map will look like Nov 4th. Based on my assessment, Obama only needs to win one of either Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia or Connecticut to win the election. McCain is surprinsingly strong in CT (perhaps the Lieberman effect?) while Obama is strong in Indiana (neighbor to Illinois). This assumes current polls hold and Obama can win New Mexico and Iowa, for example. Once again, the main point is that he can win the the whole thing even without winning Ohio or Florida, though if he does win one of those, he's going to be real hard to beat.

2008 Election Day 2 of 3

I voted today for the second of three times in 2008, with the first being the May 6 Primary and the third being the big one on Nov 4th. Apparently though I was one of a very small group who voted in the Democratic primary runoff for Labor Commissioner. I've read that overall turnout was less than 2% of registered voters and was told that at 6:30 I was only the 12th person in my precint to vote (polls closed around an hour later). I also heard it cost the state something like $3million to have this runoff election. There's got to be a better way, right? Even still, I was pleased to vote for Mary Font Donnan, having met her at a function and coming away very impressed.

Less than 5 months left...

<p><strong>><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/">Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Once again, here's the electoral college prediction map from the Washington Post website that allows you to predict how things will unfold in November. The last time I used it I was very cautious and could see many ways McCain would win; this time I'm more optimistic. Here is the map as I see it; all comes down to 10 states (the 6 I have in gray, plus Minn, VA, NH & NM).

Recent polls have Obama up in New Hampshire and Virginia, while McCain is up 1 pt in Ohio. At that point, Obama is only 15 votes away from the presidency with 74 up for grabs. Obama can do very well in many of those places too, including Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Florida. In fact, all it would take would be for him to win Minnesota and New Mexico and he's President. Of course, winning Virginia will be easier said than done, but he could still be President by losing VA and winning Iowa and Colorado. Both will be close, but certainly within reach.

To sum it up, as polls stand now, Obama can lose Ohio and Florida and still be President under a number of scenarios. It's still early, anything can happen, but I'm optimistic.

Daddy's little girl

It's so much fun being a dad. Don't get me wrong, the hours are tough, but the pay is great! We discovered very early on that Olivia loves bath time, somehow it just calms her right down. At first we thought she'd hate it and that we'd have to be as quick as possible, but it's clear she's enjoying it, so we spend at least 5 minutes, and sometimes even 10-15 just splashing in the water. She doesn't really smile yet, and she's not splashing on purpose, but she seems to love putting her head back in the water so her hair swishes around. It's so cute.

He had a dream...

This powerful picture speaks for itself, even still, Eugene Robinson wrote a great article in today's Washington Post describing the "mind-bending improbility" of what Obama has accomplished. "A young, black, first-term senator -- a man whose father was from Kenya, whose mother was from Kansas and whose name sounds as if it might have come from the roster of Guantanamo detainees -- has won a marathon of primaries and caucuses to become the presumptive presidential nominee of the Democratic Party." I think Hillary's campaign has broken just as many barriers and I admire her for her run. I strongly disagree with anyone saying she lost because of her gender. While it was probably a factor for some, I think the biggest reason she lost was that she's a Clinton, which is ironic since that was one of her greatest assets as well. This great article in today's NY Times describes all the baggage and in-fighting the Clintons would have brought with them.

2 funny videos & a link

This is a great spoof on the commercials for the NBA playoffs which accurately summarizes the Dem nomination up to this point. Below is a funny japanese spoof of the office, and since I know that all you really want are pics of Olivia, here is a link to our blog.

Funny Political Ad

In the Dem. primary for US Senate yesterday, Oregon House Speaker Merkley was given a run for his money by Steve Novack. This race wasn't supposed to be so competitive, but it ended up being particularly interesting as Novak displayed a sense of humor, capitalizing on his "uniqueness." Apparently he's only 4'9" and was born without a left arm. "People are looking for something a little different; well, I'm little and I'm different!" Even still, he lost, and it'll be Merkley vs. Gordon Smith in the fall. This is one seat I kinda hope stays Republican, as Gordon Smith is an impressive moderate Senator who, along with Orrin Hatch and Harry Reid, is blazing the trail as a successful Mormon. If you've been following the blog long enough, you'll recall that I met Sen. Smith in 2006 as he as in NYC to discuss the book he had written about dealing with his son's suicide. It was a touching and impressive book to say the least. Check out my April 2006 posts to read what I wrote then.

75,000 People at Obama Rally

55 million seconds of marriage

According to the counter on the right side of this page, Sarah and I will soon have been married for 55 million seconds (we're at 631 days right now). I have felt like the luckiest guy on earth for most of that time. I was particularly blown away during the 9,000 or so seconds we were in the hospital before Olivia was born (2.5 hours) and during most of the 1.8 million seconds since (3 weeks). Yesterday I had two profound moments of gratitude and joy as I thought about how things have changed during the last three weeks (constituting 3.3% of our marriage thus far). The first was during church as I sat with Olivia sleeping cuddled up in my left arm, and Sarah tired, with her head on my shoulder as I held her in my right arm. I am a dad, this is my family! The other moment was when the three of us laid down for our afternoon nap. Sarah and I spent some time looking at Olivia in the middle and I had the same thought, "I am a daddy and this is my family!" Life is pretty good and I can't wait to see what the next 55 million seconds bring.

Sen. McCain on SNL

I have a ton of respect for John McCain and as the Republican Primary was heating up, he was the candidate I would have most preferred to end up as President. For a similar reason, he's one of the toughest for Democrats to beat in 08. There's a lot more I like about Sens Obama or Clinotn (ie Health Reform), but I could live comfortably with a McCain presidency. Even still, the fact that his first term would end with him in his 80s is a bit troubling.

Pics of Olivia

I love being a dad and can't believe how amazing Olivia is. Sarah and I spend most of our time just staring at her, and she's not even doing new stuff yet like smiling or laughing. It's obviously hard to put into words what it's like to have your first child, but it's amazing. We've posted a lot more pics at our blog, enjoy!