As of June 25th

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

I've discovered this wikipedia site which compiles state by state polling so I can do my own analysis of tracking polls to predict what the map will look like Nov 4th. Based on my assessment, Obama only needs to win one of either Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia or Connecticut to win the election. McCain is surprinsingly strong in CT (perhaps the Lieberman effect?) while Obama is strong in Indiana (neighbor to Illinois). This assumes current polls hold and Obama can win New Mexico and Iowa, for example. Once again, the main point is that he can win the the whole thing even without winning Ohio or Florida, though if he does win one of those, he's going to be real hard to beat.