Mayor Foy's Proclamation

At the beginning of Monday night's Town Council meeting Mayor Foy presented me and other members of the Active Living by Design Advisory Board with a proclamation declaring October to be "Go! Chapel Hill Month." He stressed the importance of physical activity and thanked our committee for the work we're doing to encourage active lifestyles and to advocate policies which make active lifestyles possible. You can watch the video of his proclamation here.

In case you didn't know, I was appointed to the committee by Town Council in June. It's been a fantastic experience to work with Councilmember Ed Harrison, as well as all the dedicated people on the committee. Over the last few months our agendas have focused on a variety of topics including community gardens and "complete streets." Our most recent meeting was devoted to reviewing the town's sidewalk priority list. I'm somewhat a nerd for detailed oriented things like and enjoyed understanding how these projects get prioritized. I was particularly excited by a few of the projects on their list, though somewhat confused by a couple others. In the end our committee passed a couple resolutions advocating that a major focus be to improve pedestrian safety along Weaver Dairy Rd and Martin Luther King Blvd. I spoke up about the importance of adding more crosswalks along MLK, especially near bus stops. Somewhat coincidentally, I recently read the town will be adding four new crosswalks on MLK this fall, including linking the Shadowwoods Apt complex and the bus stop on the west side of the street. It's nice to know we're on the same page.

Links

In case you haven't noticed, I've added a few more links to the right side of the page. I also got rid of the daily update on the Yankees. It was more depressing news than I could handle! Here's a quick profile on each of the links:

1. My family's blog - The real reason anyone comes to a blog of mine is undoubtedly to check out pictures of my daughter. My wife and I update this blog regularly with pics chronicling her growth.
2. My Church - I'm a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints and very happy to share something that's made a major impact in my life and family.
3. The Fix - Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post updates this political blog about 3-4 times per day and in my opinion is a must read. His analysis is usually dead on and well thought through.
4. Antoine Flahault - I've recently become acquainted with Monsieur Flahault, the Dean of L'Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Science Publique, the School of Public Health in France. He was kind enough to put a link to this blog on his blog, and I'm happy to do the same to his very interesting and well thought through posts. Curious what a well informed French academic would write in a letter to the incoming President of the United States?
5. North Carolina Institute of Medicine - Over the summer I worked as the Jim Bernstein Health Policy Scholar, supporting the work of three task forces focusing on improving health in North Carolina. I'll continue working there 2 days a week through the entire school year.
6. Go! Chapel Hill Advisory Board - In June I was appointed by the Chapel Hill Town Council to serve on this advisory board dedicated to encouraging active lifestyles. We're currently focusing on how to improve the build environment so that people have safe places to walk, jog and ride their bikes. It's been a great experience so far and I'm looking forward to the direction the committee is going in.
7. Liverpool FC - What can I say, I've become a fan of European soccer, and I'm claiming the Merseyside roots of my great grandmother Clara Simpson in rooting for Liverpool. In case you haven't been following, they've had a pretty good stretch the last few years. They won the Champions League in 2005 (the Super Bowl of European Soccer), lost 2-1 in the 2007 finals, and almost made it to the 2008 finals. It's been a delicate start to the new season as they barely qualified for the major tournment, sneaking by a team from Belgium at the last minute. However, when all is said and done, barely winning is the same as winning!

Palin/Hillary Joint Appearance, sorta

In case you missed the much anticipated opening of SNL's new season last night, it's worth watching:

7 years later

This is a very touching picture entitled "Victims" I recently came across. Like last year, I don't have much to say about this anniversary other than that I'm deeply touched and reminded of the importance of living our lives the best we can; you never know when it will end. For me, that means focusing on being a loving husband and father, enjoying learning, and working to make an impact on other people's lives.




This was the same picture I used in my 2006 post about the 5th anniversary. It's a picture of my mom and I on top of one of the towers when I was just a few months old. Of course, the picture means more to me now because I have a daughter that age who quite frankly looks exactly like I did.

You can read my thoughts on 9/11 as posted in 2007 when I wrote about an aspect of NYC I love, 2006 when I tried to make sense of my feelings & 2005 when I wrote about my experiences that week.

The Fix Picks

As a boost to my ego, Chris Cilliza of the Washington Post updated his state by state projections and came to very similar conclusions as I did. In case you don't regularly read his blog, The Fix, you should, as it THE SOURCE I turn to for political analysis.

His post yesterday arrived at the exact same number I did, 279, though in a different way. Based on the latest polls that came out last night/this morning, he's updated it so it came down to Obama at 269 and McCain at 249, with Ohio making the difference between whose President. In case you haven't seen the recent polls, McCain has surged since the convention to either lead or tie Obama (depending on the poll). Just last week Obama was up 50-42.

56 days to go and the drama just keeps building. The worst case scenario is that the election day results are razor thin or in any way ambigous. If McCain wins, I hope it's a clear victory, and not by 3 electoral votes, etc. I get more worried every day that it's going to be SUPER close and we're going to have some new chapter to add to the Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004 episodes. Like I said in my last post, I think it's mathematically possible they both end up at 269; then what?

My prediction as of Sept 7 - Obama barely wins

<p><strong>><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/">Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

With around 60 days left to go, here's my analysis of who would win if the election were held today. As you know, the candidate who wins 270 electoral votes becomes President. If Obama is able to win every state Kerry won in 2004, plus one or two more (depending on which ones), he'll be President. It's clear many states won't change, but here the close ones (according to recent polls and my own gut) include Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. From this list, I predict the following:

Obama: Iowa, Minnesota, and New Mexico.

McCain: Colorado (Obama got close in the polls, but isn't over the hump), Florida (it's hard to be optimistic about Florida after 2000), Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and North Dakota.

Deciders: Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania & Virginia.

This gives McCain 240 and Obama 222. Could it be any closer? Here's why I think Obama will win:

Michigan (17) - Although the numbers are close, Obama has been up in every poll for awhile. A recent Zogby poll has him up 9. I think Romney would have made a huge difference here and for that reason I'm really surprised he wasn't one of McCain's two finalists (Pawlenty and Palin were apparently the two).

Nevada (5) - The recent CNN poll has Obama up 5. This is a relatively conservative state that could easily still go for McCain. This is another place where Romney would have helped out, this time due to the large Mormon population.

Ohio (20) - Apparently Kerry lost Ohio by a margin of only 1 vote per precinct. If 1 person in each precint would have voted the other way, we'd be re-electing President Kerry right now. In all honesty, maybe it wasn't so bad as I think by 2005 people saw how Bush wasn't getting the job done. This really allowed for someone like Obama to really rise to the surface. All the recent polls I've seen are within the margin of error, meaning it's still too close to call.

Pennsylvania (21) - Did you know Biden is from Scranton? If not, you'll probably hear about it soon. Pennsylania is hugely important and Biden helps a lot. The most recent Qunnipac poll has Obama up 7, while the recent CNN/Time poll has him up 5. Either way, good news.

Virginia (13) - Another state Bush won in 00 & 04 which Obama can make a serious run at. In fact, Bush won by 9% in 04, but Obama is now up slightly in a recent PPP poll.

Obama doesn't have to win all the toss-ups, but there are a number of realistic scenarios in which he can put this together. It's impossible to predict how this will play out, but under the scenario above, it kinda boils down to Virginia. Click on this state to see how the tally changes if McCain wins it. Of course, if Obama wins Colorado, Indiana, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina or any of the other potential toss-ups, then the others don't matter quite as much. Notice that if Obama wins NH, Michigan, Penn, Nevada, but loses Virginia, Florida and Ohio, then they're both tied at 269. Anyone know what happens then?

VP Choices

The most exciting and interesting presidential campaign that I've witnessed or studied has taken a few more interesting turns recently with the selections of Joe Biden and Sarah Palin for VPs. I'll spare you all my thoughts on these two choices, other than saying that both make some sense for various reasons. Biden will be a fantastic VP who can use his relationships in the Senate to move legislation. He's a great campaigner whose not afraid to attack McCain's weaknesses but with sincerity and respect.

Palin could possibly be the future of the Republican Party (they've been struggling to have a clear direction for awhile now), though I think in many ways it's a strange choice for McCain. Sure she has some experience as a reformer and knows Alaskan energy policy, but she undermines McCain's entire strategy that Obama is too inexperienced. If Obama's level of experience is such an issue, why did he pick someone with even less experience to be his VP? A few months ago he said his choice of VP was especially important given his age and medical history, and they would need to be able to step in on day 1 to take over. Frankly, I have zero confidence Sarah Palin could do that and I can't honestly belive McCain does either. He met her 2 times before making the announcement, including the time he interviewed her for the job! I'm tired of Republicans using the talking point that she has more executive experience than Obama and Biden put together (which if it's so important, doesn't she have more exec experience than McCain?) What does she know about foreigh policy? What does she think is the solution for health care system? Ending poverty? Social security?

It's true Obama doesn't have decades of experience, but he's got a clear record of thinking deeply about these issues, including being President of the Harvard Law Review, publishing two books which include lengthy discussions of these subjects, teaching constitutional law at Chicago University, years in the Illinois Senate, 4 years as US Senator, and 2 years of campaigning for President in which every word and idea has been scrutinized. NO ONE is more capable or better positioned to improve our standing in the world and relationship with European and world leaders than he is. I have a lot of respect for McCain and think in many ways he'd make a good President (the 2000-2007 McCain, I'm not as sure about the more right wing 2008 McCain), but now is just not his time.

Greensboro Half Marathon

I'm deep into my training for my 4th half marathon and couldn't be more excited. It will be on Oct 18th in Greensboro, NC (the pic is of the course map). I created a 17 week training plan which started on July 30th. It's hard to believe how quickly time goes by, but now I'm already on week 11. These next 3-4 weeks are the peak of the training when I'll have 13, 14, and 15 mile runs, along with plenty of 3, 5, 6, and 9 mile runs.

The summer months were really tough as it was so humid, but I've adjusted and am getting faster again now that the weather's getting nicer. I'm still not that fast, but have gotten pretty comfortable running anywhere from 7-9 minutes per mile (depending on the distance). I haven't had too many runs longer than 9 miles since the Raleigh half marathon on April 5th, so I'm not expected to be able to maintain that pace for 13.1 miles (21.1km). My goal is to finish in less than 1:59:55, which apparently was the average time for everyone that finished a half marathon in 2007. My personal record is 2:07, so I'm certainly in reach. I would have to average a 9:10 pace, and think I can do it.

The thing I love about running is how individual the goals are and how they help see progression. For many people these times seem incredibly easy, for others they seem completely out of reach. They used to be for me, but hopefully aren't anymore.

Health Reform - Harry & Louise

Monday was the biggest day for health reform in a long time with the re-emergence of Harry & Louise. You'll recall how the Clinton's failed to get health reform legislation passed in 93-94. One of the reasons they didn't is because they waited clear until September of 93 to introduce specific ideas, and they hadn't worked with members of Congress at all to develop the ideas. Remember that Congress was Democrat at the time, but rather than having two chambers of allies, they had expended their political capital on the free trade agreement, the balanced budget, etc. By the time there were actual hearings on the Health Security Act, it was close to the midterm elections of 94, and Dole and Newt were telling Republicans to oppose the Clinton plan no matter what. To capitalize on the perception that the Clinton plan was bureacracy gone amock and that it was hugely complicated, etc, a number of groups came together and released a tv commercial featuring a fictional couple named Harry & Louise complaining about the gov't forcing them into a health plan they didn't like. The commercial only ran in DC for a limited time, but it got huge media coverage and quickly became the symbol of the demise of the Clinton health reform attempt. Here's the original video.



Now, many of these same organizations have teamed up (including the Nat'l Federation of Small Business Owners and the American Hospital Association, two groups that strongly opposed the original Clinton legislation) and released the new Harry & Louise ad to strongly SUPPORT health reform! Check out their website. They're not endorsing a particular candidate or a particular reform proposal, they're just working to ensure that health reform is one of the first things the new President tackles so it doesn't get pushed back until Sept 09 when his political capital is expended on other things. It's still too early to make a prediction of how this will play out, but this is huge, good news, in my opinion. Dr. Oberlander has reminded me to maintain some healthy scepticism, pointing out that it's easy to agree on the principle of reform, but things can splinter quickly when specific proposals are being debated.

My other reason for guarded optimism is that Obama's staff (it's no secret who I'm supporting, right?) is already meeting with Congressional leaders to lay the groundwork to get a jump start on health care, the economy, energy policy, etc, rather than losing control of the first 100 days like Pres. Clinton did in 93.

How will all this play out? On verra!

Catching Up

As you know, it's been a little while since I've posted and plenty has happened. It's amazing what having a 3 1/2 month does to your spare time. Today is basically the official end of summer as it was my last day at work on my full-time schedule before school starts next week. What a summer it's been! I'm gonna recap some of the main things that have happened since we got back from California 5 or 6 weeks ago. They fall under a few main categories: my baby girl, academic pursuits, volunteer activities, work, half marathon training, Olympics and other sports, and of course politics. Here we go, enjoy!

PhD Application Process

I've decided to apply for a PhD to start next fall, August 2009. I'm nervous but extremely excited. After a lot of thought, research, advice, prayer, etc, we've narrowed down the short list to 7 fantastic schools. In no particular order, the schools are UNC, Harvard, Berkeley, Michigan, Yale, Duke and George Washington. The first five would be to the respective schools of public health, while the final two would be in health policy programs through the schools of public policy. Each of these schools is extremely competetive, but after great conversations with faculty at each place, I feel I am within reach and am excited to give it a shot. Which is my first choice? It's hard to say since I love each of the schools for many reasons. Truth be told, part of me is going to be dissapointed to not go to the other six I turn down or don't get into, because they are all so unique and great. That being said, I don't think I could turn down an acceptance from Harvard, for example. The political analysis program is absolutely first rate and puts you on track to a great career teaching at the best universities in the country. After 2 years of living in a beautiful smaller town, we're not sure we're ready for big city living (notice Columbia isn't on the list?), but somehow Boston feels different and special. Mostly because it's so close to Montreal and Ottawa, the two cities I called home between 99 and 07. Applications are due Dec 1, Dec 15, Dec 31, Jan 1 and Jan 15, and we won't know where we're accepted to unti March or so. Anything can happen, but we couldn't be more grateful for the oppotunities on the horizon.