November Predictions

In my view (and with some help from the Washington Post website) there are 7 states that are really going to make the difference in who is elected President in November: Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. It's possible that some states could be competitive, like Virginia and NC, but it's safe to assume they vote for McCAin. Go ahead and play with the map, but you'll see that gives McCain a 254 - 217 advantage over Obama/Clinton, with 67 votes up for grabs to help someone reach the magic number of 270. I am not basing this on much other than what I've read, my opinion and some polling, but here are my predictions for which of these 6 states Obama or Clinton would win as the nominee running against McCain:

Clinton - Minnesota, New Mexico and Penn. Result: Whoever wins Ohio wins the whole thing.

Obama - Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Penn. Result: Obama wins, even if he loses Ohio.

So why do I think Obama is more electable than Clinton in November? A combination of three huge factors: 1) A lot of conservatives can't stand Hillary and with her as the nominee it's going to be a lot easier for the Reps to get out the vote. This could make all the difference in Ohio as the gay marriage thing did for Bush in 04, as well as the other 6 or so states Bush won by less than 2%. 2) Obama excites people and has cross over appeal, meaning he'll be attractive moderates unsatisfied with McCain. 3) There are a lot of conservatives who don't like McCain and would be willing to consider Obama. This makes a lot more states competitive, including Colorado and Iowa, which as I demonstrate, could actually make the difference even if he loses Ohio. All that being said, Obama would have to win enough of these swing states to put him over the top.

This is a very exciting race, partly because the Republican and Democratic nominees (if Obama wins) don't necessarily just attract the traditional party base, meaning a lot about the electoral map could change in November.