With around 60 days left to go, here's my analysis of who would win if the election were held today. As you know, the candidate who wins 270 electoral votes becomes President. If Obama is able to win every state Kerry won in 2004, plus one or two more (depending on which ones), he'll be President. It's clear many states won't change, but here the close ones (according to recent polls and my own gut) include Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. From this list, I predict the following:
Obama: Iowa, Minnesota, and New Mexico.
McCain: Colorado (Obama got close in the polls, but isn't over the hump), Florida (it's hard to be optimistic about Florida after 2000), Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and North Dakota.
Deciders: Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania & Virginia.
This gives McCain 240 and Obama 222. Could it be any closer? Here's why I think Obama will win:
Michigan (17) - Although the numbers are close, Obama has been up in every poll for awhile. A recent Zogby poll has him up 9. I think Romney would have made a huge difference here and for that reason I'm really surprised he wasn't one of McCain's two finalists (Pawlenty and Palin were apparently the two).
Nevada (5) - The recent CNN poll has Obama up 5. This is a relatively conservative state that could easily still go for McCain. This is another place where Romney would have helped out, this time due to the large Mormon population.
Ohio (20) - Apparently Kerry lost Ohio by a margin of only 1 vote per precinct. If 1 person in each precint would have voted the other way, we'd be re-electing President Kerry right now. In all honesty, maybe it wasn't so bad as I think by 2005 people saw how Bush wasn't getting the job done. This really allowed for someone like Obama to really rise to the surface. All the recent polls I've seen are within the margin of error, meaning it's still too close to call.
Pennsylvania (21) - Did you know Biden is from Scranton? If not, you'll probably hear about it soon. Pennsylania is hugely important and Biden helps a lot. The most recent Qunnipac poll has Obama up 7, while the recent CNN/Time poll has him up 5. Either way, good news.
Virginia (13) - Another state Bush won in 00 & 04 which Obama can make a serious run at. In fact, Bush won by 9% in 04, but Obama is now up slightly in a recent PPP poll.
Obama doesn't have to win all the toss-ups, but there are a number of realistic scenarios in which he can put this together. It's impossible to predict how this will play out, but under the scenario above, it kinda boils down to Virginia. Click on this state to see how the tally changes if McCain wins it. Of course, if Obama wins Colorado, Indiana, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina or any of the other potential toss-ups, then the others don't matter quite as much. Notice that if Obama wins NH, Michigan, Penn, Nevada, but loses Virginia, Florida and Ohio, then they're both tied at 269. Anyone know what happens then?
No comments:
Post a Comment