Catching Up

Election Thoughts

Here's a brief video of President-Elect Obama walking with President Bush in many of the same places Sarah and I just visited.

What can I say about the events of last Tuesday? The final results far exceeded any projects I made, even on my most optimistic days. An African-American Democrat whose name sounds like Osama, and who has Hussein as a middle name, really won Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, etc, and will soon be sworn in as President. It's really incredible, and above all, shows how hungry America really is for change.

Strange as it may sound, I've been even more impressed with Pres-Elect Obama during the last week than I was during the campaign. He has seemed humbled and levelled by the weight of what has just been placed on his shoulders. I was amazed at how quickly he actede to appoint Rahm Emmanuel as his chief of staff, and while I initially had mixed reactions, I think it is a brilliant choice. It's true that Emmanuel has a history of sharp partisanship, but I think more than anything he's a pragmatist with strong political instincts. The right direction now calls for boldness but bi-partisanship, and he's pragmatic enough to go that direction. Best of all, he knows the House and has a lot of young legislators indebted to him. Combine that with Vice-Pres-Elect Biden's clout and experience in the Senate, and I think Obama will have a much easier time working with Congress than Pres. Clinton ever did.

Now what? in some ways it seems health care, energy, and all those priorities should be put off until the economy can be dealt with. It seems that every day in the paper there is someone arguing for doing as much at once as quickly as possible, and another arguing for babysteps. I'm somewhat inclined to believe that this is a golden opportunity that might not exist for long. Think of all LBJ was able to do in the first year after his huge victory in 1964, for example. As Al Gore pointed out in his recent op-ed, appropriately titled "A Climate for Change," the solutions to health care, energy, and the economy are so inter-related that dealing with the economy provides the opportunity to work towards solving the health care and energy problems. I know Ted Kennedy is working behind the scenes, even from his hospital bed, to craft health reform legislation. How will it play out? Only time will tell. What an exciting time!

West Wing Tour

Me sitting in Helen Thomas' seat in the White House Press Briefing Room.

At the podium with my girls.

In front of the main entrance to the West Wing.

Holding my first press conference from the White House (hopefully last!)

Many thanks to my buddy Stephen for arranging the tour of the White House and West Wing.

My adorable girl was a bit tired in the morning before heading to DC, but she was a trooper all day long.

Here I am sitting at a desk in the old House Chambers of the Virginia Legislature, the room where Jefferson and Madison used to meet.

Cannonball Half Marathon

On Saturday I completed my4th half marathon, the Cannonball Run in Greensboro, NC. It was a fantastic day, and I'll post pictures soon. In many ways it was my favorite of the 4 halfs I've done, in some ways not.

The worst part was that we got there late, so I missed the starting gun. By the time I got there they had already rolled away the mat for the timing chip and I couldn't even see the last person anymore! They told me where the course went I just started running. I eventually caught someone, and pretty soon was passing a bunch of people. It was a stressful start, but it was also so relaxing to not have to fight through a crowd of people to get into a rythm.

The course was exceptionally beautiful and I enjoyed savoring every moment of the first few miles.

My goal was to finish in under 1:59:55, the average time for all half marathoners in 2007. To do that I would basically need to maintain a 9min per mile pace, which over 13.1 miles would be difficult but doable for me. I only started running 2 years ago, never having run track or anything in school, so this is all still somewhat new to me and I know I'm not very fast compared to most people my age/shape, but it's great to see that improving. In May 2007 I did the Ottawa Half Marathon in 2:25 (weighing around 197lbs at the start of training and 189 at the end). In February 2008 I ran 2:09 in the Myrtle Beach Half, weighing 181 at the end. Two months later I ran the Raleigh Half in 2:07, weighing 179. My best 13.1 mile run in training has been 2:05.

5 miles into the race I felt really strong at 44 min (just under 9 min pace), and was confident I could get under 2 hours. At mile 8 I was still feeling really strong, running consistently between 8:50 and 9:10 min/mile. Even at mile 10 I felt like I was certainly going to contend for 2 hours, as I was at about 92 min. I had told myself that if I could get to 10 miles in around 90 minutes, then I would have a full 30 to do the last three, meaning I could run 10 min/mile the whole rest of the way.

Then mile 11 and it's big hill hit. Ugh! It just seemed to keep going and going. There weren't enough water stations. My legs threatened to start cramping up. I stopped noticing what song was on my ipod. I stopped and walked. I kept pushing, but could feel that my legs might start cramping up at any moment and that pretty soon I'd be on the ground unable to walk. I wished I had done a couple more long runs during training.

We turned back into the park near the finish line and I still hadn't seen the 11 mile marker and my mind was playing serious tricks on me. I eventually saw the 12 mile marker, but by then it was 1:55 and 2 hours was out of the question. I still felt like I could break my personal record of 2:05, but not knowing my way around park, I got real discouraged to see another uphill every time we turned a corner. Not knowing how close I was, and really afraid of cramping up, I started walking. Little did I know the finish line was just around the corner! Once I started to hear the small crowd (ony 350 did the race, so there weren't very many spectators), I ran the last 100 meters or so and felt pretty proud to be done.

My final time according to my stopwatch was 2:06:40. My time from the firing of the starting gun was 2:10:12, but remember that I was THE VERY LAST person to start, a full 3 minutes after everyone else. So I didn't meet my goal of 1:59:55, I didn't break my record from training runs, but it was my personal best in an actual race, so I guess that's something to be proud of, right?

This put me in 235th place out of 354 overall, and 15th out of 26 in my age group (25-29).

Article in the Chapel Hill News

When Mayor Foy proclaimed October to be "Go! Chapel Hill" month in Chapel Hill, in honor of the organization I've recently started volunteering with, I thought it would be a great opportunity for the local newspapers to run articles on the importance of physical activity and having a healthy lifestyle. When I suggested this to the Chapel Hill News they offered to have me write 4 short weekly columns during the month of October. I've written newspaper columns before for the politicians I've interned with, but this is the first time I'm publishing under my own name. It's pretty fun.

Here's the article published in last weekend's Chapel Hill News (circulation 22,000). This week I'll be writing about the relationship between physical activity, the economy and the environment.

In case you can't read that, here's the full text:

Mayor Foy recently proclaimed October “Go! Chapel Hill Month” and encouraged everyone to incorporate physical activity into their daily routines.

Go! Chapel Hill is an organization formed with a 5 year grant from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation to promote ways to do this. As a jogger who has had his share of near-misses, I know that being active has wonderful health benefits, but isn’t always safe. Although Chapel Hill has many beautiful greenways and sidewalks, many improvements are still needed.

One example is how difficult it is for pedestrians to cross Martin Luther King Jr. Blvd. Bus stops, businesses and apartments are often far from nearby intersections, prompting many to brave four lanes of traffic every day. The Town recently announced that new crosswalks will be built on MLK, such as one connecting the Shadowood Apartments to the bus stop across the street. This is a great step.

Building crosswalks is simple and relatively inexpensive, and more are needed on Chapel Hill’s busiest streets. In a month devoted to active living, this is particularly important, as few things encourage physical activity more than making sure it’s safe.

Canadian Election

Most Americans don't realize, but ours isn't the only major election happening right now. Canada votes for Prime Minister & Parliament in less than 2 weeks on Oct 14th. Because of the parliamentary system, the election was only called a month or so ago. The American campaign has cost hundreds of millions of dollars over the course of almost 2 full years, while the Canadian campaign costs significantly less and lasts just over a month! Of course, they're constantly in campaign mode, wondering when the elections will be called.

What do I think will happen? What do I want to happen? I can't vote in the election, so it doesn't really matter, but as an intern in the House of Commons in the fall of 2006, I had the unique opportunity to spend time with many of these leaders and watch how they operate up close, so I'm very interested in how things play out. I've stood in a scrum of reporters just 2 feet from Stephan Dion (leader of the Liberal Party - the man on the right), Jack Layton (leader of the New Democratic Party - in the middle) and Gilles Duceppes (leader of the Bloc Quebecois, not pictured), and just about every other national leader except Stephen Harper (the Prime Minister - on the left). I've been around him a number of times though, attending question period, etc, but he was less acecssible (rightly so) than everyone else.

I was always particularly impressed with Dion as someone who is passionate and sincerely interested in the issues, not to mention incredibly intelligent. I'm not sure he's a natural fit for the position, and would be someone everyoe across Canada would be confident about having as their leader right now. Even if he somehow wins, it'll be a minority government, and it'll seem like the conservatives will be itching to go to the polls as soon as they can.

On the other hand, I worked for a Conservative Member of Parliament (Rob Merrifield) and got to sit in on a lot private strategy sessions, so I feel I have a sense for how that party operates as well. I really enjoyed my time with him and found him and his staff to be extremely impressive. By and large I was impressed with everyone else too, but some people had surprisingly little depth of knowledge or interest in some key issues, and were much more likely to oppose/support something purely on ideological grounds with no clear reasoning other than "it's what the minister's office wants." If I had worked up close with another party I probably would have had the same impression. Perhaps that's the nature of federal politics. That being said, Harper always impressed me as intelligent, consistent, and having sharp political instincts.

I was largely impressed with the sincerity and intellect of individual members of the Bloc Quebecois (a party devoted solely to advocated Quebec's interest and autonomy), though I think the foundation of their party is incredibly weak and somewhat self-serving. They always want independence and special rules for Quebec, but always push for the maximum federal dollars as well. I don't think you can have it both ways...

The NDP and Green Party are full of good people, but don't have a broad enough platform to gain significant support. Even still, I think Jack Layton is an effective leader for the NDP and is the source of some most memorable quotes.

My prediction: Conservatives win a minority government, liberals have a new leader very soon, Green party wins at least 1 seat (not many more), and the new government doesn't last 2 1/2 years.

To see previous posts about my internship in the Canadian Parliament, check out post about: giving my dad a tour, a typical day in Oct 06, Dion takes over Liberals in Dec 06, and holiday dinner in the Parliementary restaurant,

Phish Reunion

PHISH HAMPTON 2009 from Phish on Vimeo.

After 5 years of not playing, Phish announced this morning that they're getting back together for a weekend of shows in Hampton, Virginia. I won't go into all the details, but Hampton is a particularly famous venue in Phish lore, so this is very fitting. The announcement came by way of this video being posted on their website at 3am this morning! (No I wasn't awake to see it that early). I heard about it by 9am, and quickly signed up for the lottery to get tickets. The Hampton Coliseum only seats 13,000, and I'd expect at least 30,000-50,000 people to try to get tickets, so I'm not counting my chickens until they hatch. To give you an idea, at 10am I decided to look at hotels just out of curiousity and found that virtually EVERYTHING within 10 miles was booked already.

In case you can't figure out what the guy in the video is drawing, here's a picture of the venue:

Mayor Foy's Proclamation

At the beginning of Monday night's Town Council meeting Mayor Foy presented me and other members of the Active Living by Design Advisory Board with a proclamation declaring October to be "Go! Chapel Hill Month." He stressed the importance of physical activity and thanked our committee for the work we're doing to encourage active lifestyles and to advocate policies which make active lifestyles possible. You can watch the video of his proclamation here.

In case you didn't know, I was appointed to the committee by Town Council in June. It's been a fantastic experience to work with Councilmember Ed Harrison, as well as all the dedicated people on the committee. Over the last few months our agendas have focused on a variety of topics including community gardens and "complete streets." Our most recent meeting was devoted to reviewing the town's sidewalk priority list. I'm somewhat a nerd for detailed oriented things like and enjoyed understanding how these projects get prioritized. I was particularly excited by a few of the projects on their list, though somewhat confused by a couple others. In the end our committee passed a couple resolutions advocating that a major focus be to improve pedestrian safety along Weaver Dairy Rd and Martin Luther King Blvd. I spoke up about the importance of adding more crosswalks along MLK, especially near bus stops. Somewhat coincidentally, I recently read the town will be adding four new crosswalks on MLK this fall, including linking the Shadowwoods Apt complex and the bus stop on the west side of the street. It's nice to know we're on the same page.

Links

In case you haven't noticed, I've added a few more links to the right side of the page. I also got rid of the daily update on the Yankees. It was more depressing news than I could handle! Here's a quick profile on each of the links:

1. My family's blog - The real reason anyone comes to a blog of mine is undoubtedly to check out pictures of my daughter. My wife and I update this blog regularly with pics chronicling her growth.
2. My Church - I'm a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints and very happy to share something that's made a major impact in my life and family.
3. The Fix - Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post updates this political blog about 3-4 times per day and in my opinion is a must read. His analysis is usually dead on and well thought through.
4. Antoine Flahault - I've recently become acquainted with Monsieur Flahault, the Dean of L'Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Science Publique, the School of Public Health in France. He was kind enough to put a link to this blog on his blog, and I'm happy to do the same to his very interesting and well thought through posts. Curious what a well informed French academic would write in a letter to the incoming President of the United States?
5. North Carolina Institute of Medicine - Over the summer I worked as the Jim Bernstein Health Policy Scholar, supporting the work of three task forces focusing on improving health in North Carolina. I'll continue working there 2 days a week through the entire school year.
6. Go! Chapel Hill Advisory Board - In June I was appointed by the Chapel Hill Town Council to serve on this advisory board dedicated to encouraging active lifestyles. We're currently focusing on how to improve the build environment so that people have safe places to walk, jog and ride their bikes. It's been a great experience so far and I'm looking forward to the direction the committee is going in.
7. Liverpool FC - What can I say, I've become a fan of European soccer, and I'm claiming the Merseyside roots of my great grandmother Clara Simpson in rooting for Liverpool. In case you haven't been following, they've had a pretty good stretch the last few years. They won the Champions League in 2005 (the Super Bowl of European Soccer), lost 2-1 in the 2007 finals, and almost made it to the 2008 finals. It's been a delicate start to the new season as they barely qualified for the major tournment, sneaking by a team from Belgium at the last minute. However, when all is said and done, barely winning is the same as winning!

Palin/Hillary Joint Appearance, sorta

In case you missed the much anticipated opening of SNL's new season last night, it's worth watching:

7 years later

This is a very touching picture entitled "Victims" I recently came across. Like last year, I don't have much to say about this anniversary other than that I'm deeply touched and reminded of the importance of living our lives the best we can; you never know when it will end. For me, that means focusing on being a loving husband and father, enjoying learning, and working to make an impact on other people's lives.




This was the same picture I used in my 2006 post about the 5th anniversary. It's a picture of my mom and I on top of one of the towers when I was just a few months old. Of course, the picture means more to me now because I have a daughter that age who quite frankly looks exactly like I did.

You can read my thoughts on 9/11 as posted in 2007 when I wrote about an aspect of NYC I love, 2006 when I tried to make sense of my feelings & 2005 when I wrote about my experiences that week.

The Fix Picks

As a boost to my ego, Chris Cilliza of the Washington Post updated his state by state projections and came to very similar conclusions as I did. In case you don't regularly read his blog, The Fix, you should, as it THE SOURCE I turn to for political analysis.

His post yesterday arrived at the exact same number I did, 279, though in a different way. Based on the latest polls that came out last night/this morning, he's updated it so it came down to Obama at 269 and McCain at 249, with Ohio making the difference between whose President. In case you haven't seen the recent polls, McCain has surged since the convention to either lead or tie Obama (depending on the poll). Just last week Obama was up 50-42.

56 days to go and the drama just keeps building. The worst case scenario is that the election day results are razor thin or in any way ambigous. If McCain wins, I hope it's a clear victory, and not by 3 electoral votes, etc. I get more worried every day that it's going to be SUPER close and we're going to have some new chapter to add to the Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004 episodes. Like I said in my last post, I think it's mathematically possible they both end up at 269; then what?

My prediction as of Sept 7 - Obama barely wins

<p><strong>><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/">Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

With around 60 days left to go, here's my analysis of who would win if the election were held today. As you know, the candidate who wins 270 electoral votes becomes President. If Obama is able to win every state Kerry won in 2004, plus one or two more (depending on which ones), he'll be President. It's clear many states won't change, but here the close ones (according to recent polls and my own gut) include Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. From this list, I predict the following:

Obama: Iowa, Minnesota, and New Mexico.

McCain: Colorado (Obama got close in the polls, but isn't over the hump), Florida (it's hard to be optimistic about Florida after 2000), Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and North Dakota.

Deciders: Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania & Virginia.

This gives McCain 240 and Obama 222. Could it be any closer? Here's why I think Obama will win:

Michigan (17) - Although the numbers are close, Obama has been up in every poll for awhile. A recent Zogby poll has him up 9. I think Romney would have made a huge difference here and for that reason I'm really surprised he wasn't one of McCain's two finalists (Pawlenty and Palin were apparently the two).

Nevada (5) - The recent CNN poll has Obama up 5. This is a relatively conservative state that could easily still go for McCain. This is another place where Romney would have helped out, this time due to the large Mormon population.

Ohio (20) - Apparently Kerry lost Ohio by a margin of only 1 vote per precinct. If 1 person in each precint would have voted the other way, we'd be re-electing President Kerry right now. In all honesty, maybe it wasn't so bad as I think by 2005 people saw how Bush wasn't getting the job done. This really allowed for someone like Obama to really rise to the surface. All the recent polls I've seen are within the margin of error, meaning it's still too close to call.

Pennsylvania (21) - Did you know Biden is from Scranton? If not, you'll probably hear about it soon. Pennsylania is hugely important and Biden helps a lot. The most recent Qunnipac poll has Obama up 7, while the recent CNN/Time poll has him up 5. Either way, good news.

Virginia (13) - Another state Bush won in 00 & 04 which Obama can make a serious run at. In fact, Bush won by 9% in 04, but Obama is now up slightly in a recent PPP poll.

Obama doesn't have to win all the toss-ups, but there are a number of realistic scenarios in which he can put this together. It's impossible to predict how this will play out, but under the scenario above, it kinda boils down to Virginia. Click on this state to see how the tally changes if McCain wins it. Of course, if Obama wins Colorado, Indiana, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina or any of the other potential toss-ups, then the others don't matter quite as much. Notice that if Obama wins NH, Michigan, Penn, Nevada, but loses Virginia, Florida and Ohio, then they're both tied at 269. Anyone know what happens then?

VP Choices

The most exciting and interesting presidential campaign that I've witnessed or studied has taken a few more interesting turns recently with the selections of Joe Biden and Sarah Palin for VPs. I'll spare you all my thoughts on these two choices, other than saying that both make some sense for various reasons. Biden will be a fantastic VP who can use his relationships in the Senate to move legislation. He's a great campaigner whose not afraid to attack McCain's weaknesses but with sincerity and respect.

Palin could possibly be the future of the Republican Party (they've been struggling to have a clear direction for awhile now), though I think in many ways it's a strange choice for McCain. Sure she has some experience as a reformer and knows Alaskan energy policy, but she undermines McCain's entire strategy that Obama is too inexperienced. If Obama's level of experience is such an issue, why did he pick someone with even less experience to be his VP? A few months ago he said his choice of VP was especially important given his age and medical history, and they would need to be able to step in on day 1 to take over. Frankly, I have zero confidence Sarah Palin could do that and I can't honestly belive McCain does either. He met her 2 times before making the announcement, including the time he interviewed her for the job! I'm tired of Republicans using the talking point that she has more executive experience than Obama and Biden put together (which if it's so important, doesn't she have more exec experience than McCain?) What does she know about foreigh policy? What does she think is the solution for health care system? Ending poverty? Social security?

It's true Obama doesn't have decades of experience, but he's got a clear record of thinking deeply about these issues, including being President of the Harvard Law Review, publishing two books which include lengthy discussions of these subjects, teaching constitutional law at Chicago University, years in the Illinois Senate, 4 years as US Senator, and 2 years of campaigning for President in which every word and idea has been scrutinized. NO ONE is more capable or better positioned to improve our standing in the world and relationship with European and world leaders than he is. I have a lot of respect for McCain and think in many ways he'd make a good President (the 2000-2007 McCain, I'm not as sure about the more right wing 2008 McCain), but now is just not his time.

Greensboro Half Marathon

I'm deep into my training for my 4th half marathon and couldn't be more excited. It will be on Oct 18th in Greensboro, NC (the pic is of the course map). I created a 17 week training plan which started on July 30th. It's hard to believe how quickly time goes by, but now I'm already on week 11. These next 3-4 weeks are the peak of the training when I'll have 13, 14, and 15 mile runs, along with plenty of 3, 5, 6, and 9 mile runs.

The summer months were really tough as it was so humid, but I've adjusted and am getting faster again now that the weather's getting nicer. I'm still not that fast, but have gotten pretty comfortable running anywhere from 7-9 minutes per mile (depending on the distance). I haven't had too many runs longer than 9 miles since the Raleigh half marathon on April 5th, so I'm not expected to be able to maintain that pace for 13.1 miles (21.1km). My goal is to finish in less than 1:59:55, which apparently was the average time for everyone that finished a half marathon in 2007. My personal record is 2:07, so I'm certainly in reach. I would have to average a 9:10 pace, and think I can do it.

The thing I love about running is how individual the goals are and how they help see progression. For many people these times seem incredibly easy, for others they seem completely out of reach. They used to be for me, but hopefully aren't anymore.

Health Reform - Harry & Louise

Monday was the biggest day for health reform in a long time with the re-emergence of Harry & Louise. You'll recall how the Clinton's failed to get health reform legislation passed in 93-94. One of the reasons they didn't is because they waited clear until September of 93 to introduce specific ideas, and they hadn't worked with members of Congress at all to develop the ideas. Remember that Congress was Democrat at the time, but rather than having two chambers of allies, they had expended their political capital on the free trade agreement, the balanced budget, etc. By the time there were actual hearings on the Health Security Act, it was close to the midterm elections of 94, and Dole and Newt were telling Republicans to oppose the Clinton plan no matter what. To capitalize on the perception that the Clinton plan was bureacracy gone amock and that it was hugely complicated, etc, a number of groups came together and released a tv commercial featuring a fictional couple named Harry & Louise complaining about the gov't forcing them into a health plan they didn't like. The commercial only ran in DC for a limited time, but it got huge media coverage and quickly became the symbol of the demise of the Clinton health reform attempt. Here's the original video.



Now, many of these same organizations have teamed up (including the Nat'l Federation of Small Business Owners and the American Hospital Association, two groups that strongly opposed the original Clinton legislation) and released the new Harry & Louise ad to strongly SUPPORT health reform! Check out their website. They're not endorsing a particular candidate or a particular reform proposal, they're just working to ensure that health reform is one of the first things the new President tackles so it doesn't get pushed back until Sept 09 when his political capital is expended on other things. It's still too early to make a prediction of how this will play out, but this is huge, good news, in my opinion. Dr. Oberlander has reminded me to maintain some healthy scepticism, pointing out that it's easy to agree on the principle of reform, but things can splinter quickly when specific proposals are being debated.

My other reason for guarded optimism is that Obama's staff (it's no secret who I'm supporting, right?) is already meeting with Congressional leaders to lay the groundwork to get a jump start on health care, the economy, energy policy, etc, rather than losing control of the first 100 days like Pres. Clinton did in 93.

How will all this play out? On verra!

Catching Up

As you know, it's been a little while since I've posted and plenty has happened. It's amazing what having a 3 1/2 month does to your spare time. Today is basically the official end of summer as it was my last day at work on my full-time schedule before school starts next week. What a summer it's been! I'm gonna recap some of the main things that have happened since we got back from California 5 or 6 weeks ago. They fall under a few main categories: my baby girl, academic pursuits, volunteer activities, work, half marathon training, Olympics and other sports, and of course politics. Here we go, enjoy!

PhD Application Process

I've decided to apply for a PhD to start next fall, August 2009. I'm nervous but extremely excited. After a lot of thought, research, advice, prayer, etc, we've narrowed down the short list to 7 fantastic schools. In no particular order, the schools are UNC, Harvard, Berkeley, Michigan, Yale, Duke and George Washington. The first five would be to the respective schools of public health, while the final two would be in health policy programs through the schools of public policy. Each of these schools is extremely competetive, but after great conversations with faculty at each place, I feel I am within reach and am excited to give it a shot. Which is my first choice? It's hard to say since I love each of the schools for many reasons. Truth be told, part of me is going to be dissapointed to not go to the other six I turn down or don't get into, because they are all so unique and great. That being said, I don't think I could turn down an acceptance from Harvard, for example. The political analysis program is absolutely first rate and puts you on track to a great career teaching at the best universities in the country. After 2 years of living in a beautiful smaller town, we're not sure we're ready for big city living (notice Columbia isn't on the list?), but somehow Boston feels different and special. Mostly because it's so close to Montreal and Ottawa, the two cities I called home between 99 and 07. Applications are due Dec 1, Dec 15, Dec 31, Jan 1 and Jan 15, and we won't know where we're accepted to unti March or so. Anything can happen, but we couldn't be more grateful for the oppotunities on the horizon.

California

We went to California for the fourth of July weekend and really enjoyed being with my mom and everyone else. We enjoyed seeing places in the area such as Half Moon Bay, San Fran and Berkeley.

Olivia was so much fun to be with on this trip, so easy and pleasant the entire time.

She especially enjoyed her time with her cousins, even though Shawn beat me in the horshoe tourney.

This is just an especially beautiful photo of my sweetheart at the beach at Half Moon Bay. I am so in love with her and so grateful for all her support and friendship, not to mention her leadership skills. I love you Sarah!

As of June 25th

<p><strong>><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/">Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

I've discovered this wikipedia site which compiles state by state polling so I can do my own analysis of tracking polls to predict what the map will look like Nov 4th. Based on my assessment, Obama only needs to win one of either Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia or Connecticut to win the election. McCain is surprinsingly strong in CT (perhaps the Lieberman effect?) while Obama is strong in Indiana (neighbor to Illinois). This assumes current polls hold and Obama can win New Mexico and Iowa, for example. Once again, the main point is that he can win the the whole thing even without winning Ohio or Florida, though if he does win one of those, he's going to be real hard to beat.

2008 Election Day 2 of 3

I voted today for the second of three times in 2008, with the first being the May 6 Primary and the third being the big one on Nov 4th. Apparently though I was one of a very small group who voted in the Democratic primary runoff for Labor Commissioner. I've read that overall turnout was less than 2% of registered voters and was told that at 6:30 I was only the 12th person in my precint to vote (polls closed around an hour later). I also heard it cost the state something like $3million to have this runoff election. There's got to be a better way, right? Even still, I was pleased to vote for Mary Font Donnan, having met her at a function and coming away very impressed.

Less than 5 months left...

<p><strong>><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/">Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Once again, here's the electoral college prediction map from the Washington Post website that allows you to predict how things will unfold in November. The last time I used it I was very cautious and could see many ways McCain would win; this time I'm more optimistic. Here is the map as I see it; all comes down to 10 states (the 6 I have in gray, plus Minn, VA, NH & NM).

Recent polls have Obama up in New Hampshire and Virginia, while McCain is up 1 pt in Ohio. At that point, Obama is only 15 votes away from the presidency with 74 up for grabs. Obama can do very well in many of those places too, including Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Florida. In fact, all it would take would be for him to win Minnesota and New Mexico and he's President. Of course, winning Virginia will be easier said than done, but he could still be President by losing VA and winning Iowa and Colorado. Both will be close, but certainly within reach.

To sum it up, as polls stand now, Obama can lose Ohio and Florida and still be President under a number of scenarios. It's still early, anything can happen, but I'm optimistic.

Daddy's little girl

It's so much fun being a dad. Don't get me wrong, the hours are tough, but the pay is great! We discovered very early on that Olivia loves bath time, somehow it just calms her right down. At first we thought she'd hate it and that we'd have to be as quick as possible, but it's clear she's enjoying it, so we spend at least 5 minutes, and sometimes even 10-15 just splashing in the water. She doesn't really smile yet, and she's not splashing on purpose, but she seems to love putting her head back in the water so her hair swishes around. It's so cute.

He had a dream...

This powerful picture speaks for itself, even still, Eugene Robinson wrote a great article in today's Washington Post describing the "mind-bending improbility" of what Obama has accomplished. "A young, black, first-term senator -- a man whose father was from Kenya, whose mother was from Kansas and whose name sounds as if it might have come from the roster of Guantanamo detainees -- has won a marathon of primaries and caucuses to become the presumptive presidential nominee of the Democratic Party." I think Hillary's campaign has broken just as many barriers and I admire her for her run. I strongly disagree with anyone saying she lost because of her gender. While it was probably a factor for some, I think the biggest reason she lost was that she's a Clinton, which is ironic since that was one of her greatest assets as well. This great article in today's NY Times describes all the baggage and in-fighting the Clintons would have brought with them.

2 funny videos & a link

This is a great spoof on the commercials for the NBA playoffs which accurately summarizes the Dem nomination up to this point. Below is a funny japanese spoof of the office, and since I know that all you really want are pics of Olivia, here is a link to our blog.

Funny Political Ad

In the Dem. primary for US Senate yesterday, Oregon House Speaker Merkley was given a run for his money by Steve Novack. This race wasn't supposed to be so competitive, but it ended up being particularly interesting as Novak displayed a sense of humor, capitalizing on his "uniqueness." Apparently he's only 4'9" and was born without a left arm. "People are looking for something a little different; well, I'm little and I'm different!" Even still, he lost, and it'll be Merkley vs. Gordon Smith in the fall. This is one seat I kinda hope stays Republican, as Gordon Smith is an impressive moderate Senator who, along with Orrin Hatch and Harry Reid, is blazing the trail as a successful Mormon. If you've been following the blog long enough, you'll recall that I met Sen. Smith in 2006 as he as in NYC to discuss the book he had written about dealing with his son's suicide. It was a touching and impressive book to say the least. Check out my April 2006 posts to read what I wrote then.

75,000 People at Obama Rally

55 million seconds of marriage

According to the counter on the right side of this page, Sarah and I will soon have been married for 55 million seconds (we're at 631 days right now). I have felt like the luckiest guy on earth for most of that time. I was particularly blown away during the 9,000 or so seconds we were in the hospital before Olivia was born (2.5 hours) and during most of the 1.8 million seconds since (3 weeks). Yesterday I had two profound moments of gratitude and joy as I thought about how things have changed during the last three weeks (constituting 3.3% of our marriage thus far). The first was during church as I sat with Olivia sleeping cuddled up in my left arm, and Sarah tired, with her head on my shoulder as I held her in my right arm. I am a dad, this is my family! The other moment was when the three of us laid down for our afternoon nap. Sarah and I spent some time looking at Olivia in the middle and I had the same thought, "I am a daddy and this is my family!" Life is pretty good and I can't wait to see what the next 55 million seconds bring.

Sen. McCain on SNL

I have a ton of respect for John McCain and as the Republican Primary was heating up, he was the candidate I would have most preferred to end up as President. For a similar reason, he's one of the toughest for Democrats to beat in 08. There's a lot more I like about Sens Obama or Clinotn (ie Health Reform), but I could live comfortably with a McCain presidency. Even still, the fact that his first term would end with him in his 80s is a bit troubling.

Pics of Olivia

I love being a dad and can't believe how amazing Olivia is. Sarah and I spend most of our time just staring at her, and she's not even doing new stuff yet like smiling or laughing. It's obviously hard to put into words what it's like to have your first child, but it's amazing. We've posted a lot more pics at our blog, enjoy!

Jefferson-Jackson Dinner

On Friday night Dad and I went to the Raleigh Fairgrounds to attend the NC Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, the annual fundraiser for the Dem. Party. I've been to a few of these types of events before, but this was special as both Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton were scheduled to speak. But before we saw them we got to hear two candidates running to replace Elizabeth Dole in the Senate (Kay Hagan and Jim Neal), as well as two candidates for Governor (Bev Purdue and Richard Moore). All were very good, though I found Hagan to be particularly impressive and I look forward to seeing if she can compete with Dole. Neal was very good too and was the only candidate to come up to our section to shake hands, etc (I can't believe more didn't, we were a trapped, captive audience obviously interested in politics). The second photo is of Jim Neal and a native of our section. The bottom photo is of Hagan during her speech.


Finally the secret service came out and Hillary was announced.


I thought she did a great job and feel very confident that if she ends up being the nominee I would support her. I was pleased to hear her say that if Obama wins "you better believe I'll work my heart out for him." She also mentioned how great John Edwards is, and then in the next sentence said she'd create a cabinet level position devoted solely to ending poverty. It's obviously pandering, but why not?


Around 9:45 it was Sen. Obama's turn. The atmosphere was pretty electric as the Obama fans were pumped, really making it feel like a high school pep rally. For the record, I voted for Obama this morning, but when I say fan, I mean the people who were jumping up and down, yelling, chanting "yes we can," etc. Somehow that's just not my style.

I'm a dad!!

At 6:37 am on Monday April 28th, my daughter Olivia Kerrie Jones was born. It was an unbelievable experience and I can't believe how much I love this 6lb 14oz girl. This is my very favorite video as it shows her responding to my voice just minutes after being born. I talked to her quite a bit while she was in the womb, telling her all about school, the Yankees' off season, the campaign, my running, etc. It was a pretty amazing experience to have her recognize my voice so quickly. I love the other photos as well. You can see more at our other blog: www.sacutojones.blogspot.com

Updates

I am as ready to be a dad as I'll ever be. I had so much fun tonight playing with my friend's daughter and thinking about how much I already love the girl in this belly:


In other news, I've decided to train for the Richmond Marathon on November 15th, yes the full 26.2!! I'm pretty nervous and excited at the same time and glad to have a new goal. I've discovered the Carolina North Forest, a beautiful 750 acres of trails in thick woods which provide wonderful shade on hot runs. I've been increasing the number of days I run lately to 5 (I was only running 3 times during the busiest part of the semester), though I've taken a break from longer distance. I ran 6 miles once and 5 miles twice last week, as well as a couple 3 milers. I've been really inspired by one of my Econ profs who ran a 2:35 time in the Boston Marathon last week, coming in the top 100, averaging around 6 minutes per mile!! Imagine coming in the top 100 of one of the most prestigious races in the world. He said the highlight was passing Lance Armstrong and then not seeing him again the rest of the race.

Update

We went to the midwives yesterday and Sarah had her first cervical check. Turns out all those contractions have been productive because she's already 2-3 cm dilated and 60-80% effaced. This means she is well on her way and hopefullythe earlier phase of labor should be a little shorter. It might also mean we're closer to Olivia's birthday, though it's impossible to know. We know of people who have walked around 3 cm dilated for a couple weeks before anything happened. Even still, this is good news and means the end is right around the corner. Apparently the baby's head is also at station -2, which to me sounds like the name of a sci-fi thriller, but means that she has dropped a lot and is deep in the pelvic bone. Sarah had some regular contractions again last night, but only for an hour or so. She had worked herself so hard organizing a bridal shower for our friend Angela, that by the time she was doing dishes, they were coming every 4-5 minutes. They stopped by the time she fell asleep, but it's only 10am and she's already at a baby shower she planned. This girl doesn't know how to stop!

39th week

Today is the start of the 39th week of pregnancy and I couldn't be more excited. We'll be sure to let everyone know when it happens. Without getting your hopes up too much, you might be interested to know that Sarah has been having pretty regular contractions for a little while now. This happened last week too, so we're not letting ourselves get too excited. Last Wednesday (7 days ago) she was having contractions every 12-20 minutes for a period of three hours. We eventually went to bed and they stopped. Last night I got home around 8pm and Sarah said she had been having contractions for an hour already. They kept coming all night, about 10-20 minutes apart, so we eventually went to bed wondering if it would be like last week. When I woke up this morning at 7:30 Sarah was somewhat awake due to a contraction. I've been timing them this morning and they've been 12-16 minutes apart. In other words, while the contractions haven't been too strong or that close together, they have been pretty regular for over 12 hours now. Does that mean we're in labor? This is quite the week to go into labor as I have two huge papers due tomorrow and 2 final exams early next week. Luckily I've been preparing for this and have already finished the papers and think I could do well on the two finals. We'll see what happens!

Healthy Americans Act

This video was put together by a PR firm hired by Sen. Ron Wyden with the goal of building support for his bill to create universal health insurance. He's had the bill out for awhile, and I think by and large it's a pretty good bill. But what's interesting to me about this is that the video isn't really aimed at getting the public's attention but trying to get other Senators and Members of Congress interested. Apparently 7 dems and 7 reps have signed on to support the bill, which is great, but obviously way short of what he'll need. I doubt he'll be able to get this off the ground and I'm sure nothing major will happen until there is a new (DEMOCRAT) President in the White House. Even still, his bill could be the foundation they build on in 2009. What do you think, can we have our cake and eat it too?

Raleigh Half Marathon

Here are a couple of the official photos from the half marathon I ran on Saturday. It actually felt pretty good and I look forward to doing it again, though that was probably my last major race until after the summer is over. It was 65dgs and 90% humidity and I was praying for rain to cool me off; imagine if it had been 85 or 95 dgs!? I'm thinking about doing a 5k on Sat April 26th here in Chapel Hill, but I've been sick all week and haven't run once since Raleigh, so I'm not sure.

36 weeks!

We officially hit 36 weeks today, a major milestone in "our" pregnancy. Supposedly she weighs around 6 pounds and is about 13 inches from crown to rump. This week she is practicing blinking, has fully developed sucking muscles, and her gums are becoming more rigid. At our midwife appt yesterday we confirmed that she is really in the head down position, though we were pretty sure we felt her laying side to side last night (unless she has supper wide shoulders!) We have noticed her dropping a little bit, though she usually seems to come back up each time. It seems the mucus plug is starting to drain away, though it's hard to tell. Sarah is doing well, handling it like a champion. She's feeling pretty ready for it to be over and to be able to walk & job comfortably, as well sleep comfortably. We couldn't be luckier though and feel so grateful for how good everyone has been to us. We're really in the homestretch, although I must admit it feels like we should be a little bit closer than we actually are. Patience is the key at this point (though I'm ok if she waits to come until after finals).

New Prophet & Apostle

This is General Conference weekend for my Church (The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, aka the Mormon Church). Every April and October the 13 million members of our church gather for 2 days of meetings to hear 15 minute talks from our leaders. The themes this weekend included service, compassion, family, and an impressive report on the public health initiatives the church is conducting throughout the world. On Saturday Thomas S. Monson officially became the 16th President of the Church and David Todd Christofferson became the next Apostle (a lifetime appointment to top governing body). He is on the left in the above photo, with the next most junior Apostle, Quentin Cook. Click here to read the Newsweek article about Pres. Monson. Elder Christofferson (Elder is a title) got his law degree from Duke (I'll try not to hold it against him) and worked in Charlotte for awhile before eventually being called to work full time for the Church. He was in charge of running its huge geneology program. Check out his press conference after he was announced as the new Apostle.